Goldman Sachs Forecasts Declines in Key Energy Transition Minerals (Study)
Goldman Sachs, an American investment bank, forecasts significant declines in the prices of cobalt, nickel, and lithium over the next twelve months, driven by weakening demand from the electric vehicle industry in Western countries and oversupply.
Despite already experiencing substantial drops—60% for nickel, 80% for lithium, and 65% for cobalt—from their peak levels, analysts at the Wall Street bank caution against premature optimism regarding the end of this downward trend.
Over the coming year, Goldman analysts anticipate price decreases of 12% for cobalt, 15% for nickel, and 25% for lithium carbonate. These minerals play vital roles in electric vehicle battery production, as well as in wind turbines and solar panels.
Analysts note that margin pressures have led to significant supply rationing effects, particularly in the final quarter of the previous year.
However, projected surpluses in 2024 remain substantial due to reduced demand from Western countries’ electric vehicle industries.
The market witnessed a dramatic decline in October 2023, with lithium carbonate prices plummeting by 70% compared to the previous year, nickel prices depreciating by 40%, and cobalt hitting historically low levels.
This collapse was primarily attributed to the slowdown in electric car sales growth, particularly in China, resulting in decreased demand for lithium, nickel, and cobalt—essential components of batteries.
While electric vehicle sales doubled in the first nine months of 2022, they only saw a 25% increase during the same period in 2023.
